That said, I personally like to have both bull put and bear call spreads working so long as each conforms to all the entry rules! Please check here for more information about the online catalogs subscriptions. This is part of the end times phenomenon. I thought maybe it would be less stressful to close the spread.
You are here:
Some Bradley model analysts would also include "micro spikes" but I strongly advise against that because that's not significant enough and should be interpreted as "white noise". For unknown reasons there are even minor differences between the different software programs that all use the original formula of Donald Bradley. While major turns in the Bradley chart are more or less identical you would get entirely different results if you zoom in too much. Next year there are only 8 potential turning points, with the last 4 being more significant bold letters than the first 4 window: Some Bradley analysts would also include the " micro-spikes " of the 1st quarter but I strongly advise against that because that's not significant enough and should be interpreted as "white noise".
Below please find the Bradley siderograph original formula for December - January The other 3 siderograph models reserved for Amanita subscribers differ from the shown standard model considerably. Perhaps you want to know now which one is the "correct" siderograph - the answer is easy: Since Bradley's time dozens of similar models with different parameters have been created, partly optimized with the aid of artificial intelligence and for specific markets oil, currencies etc.
A date which occurs in several different models is probably important. The older Bradley charts can be found here. How to receive the raw data: By including declinations, Donald Bradley has probably unwittingly created the formula so that it mirrors the usual seasonal pattern "sell in May and go" - but for this purpose you rather use the seasonal charts and not the siderograph. Another possibility is to predict inversions but to my knowledge all attempts have failed so far.
I always stress that only the date of the turn is meaningful but not if it's the high or a low in the chart of the siderograph. It's interesting to analyze the polarities top or bottom: It seems that some colleagues continue to use the siderograph as an indicator for rising or falling markets despite this claim can't pass an empirical test. Until year-end there is only one major reversal in store: Every few months I send out an update on the Bradley siderograph , below please find today's comments.
This is the Bradley siderograph standard model for explanation Bradley siderograph: This analysis is based on the standard model only that is available in the free area, the other models are reserved for subscribers.
Whether a date is a top or a bottom in the Bradley chart is meaningless even if that is claimed to be the case by some sources , i. As this review shows, you can certainly be very satisfied with the performance of the Bradley as an isolated indicator, in the CSQN model the siderograph is a "positioning factor" and thus among the 3 highest-weighted out of 2 dozens.
The last discussion of the Bradley siderograph dates back to Sep 20 so it's now time for an update of this cosmic indicator whose significance is overestimated by light years.
Below please find the Bradley siderograph original formula for the year , for a better visual interpretation I added the last month of and the first month of In addition, there are 6 other turning point of lesser significance: The other 3 siderograph models reserved for Amanita subscribers differ from the shown standard model in many cases and do fill the gap from September until mid-December where the standard model leaves a void.
Due to questions and misunderstandings a preliminary note: My timing method are the Amanita pivots where the Bradley is just one of more than 2 dozen indicators taken into consideration. This describes the role of the Bradley in my work, it certainly is an important indicator, still just one of many.
Two of the three dates are already history, let's examine how they did work out: This is a chart of the SPX with the Bradley turning dates red arrows , the significance of the Bradley is self-evident. The next turning points are charts: Probably a weak turning point as it's not close to an Amanita pivot.
This date is not confirmed by other methods so it should only be a minor turn. You say that the transactioncosts are the same for both but since you get a better fill on the SPY you prefer that one. If that is so, it explains the problem. Hello fellow safertraders out there. This is my 1st post on this forum. I wanted to get some feedback on something I do and see what others think about it.
So what I do is when I do credit spreads on indiv. I thought the idea of using spread as opposed to selling naked should guard against being wiped out in a Black Swan event.
That is unless your position sizing is disproportionately large. In this case a black swan event could cause the underlying to jump your stop and could potentially wipe out a large portion of your account. When exiting a credit spread before expiration is it better to use a stop, limit, or stop limit order?
I understand the difference between the three but am never sure which might be best when exiting a credit spread. When entering a new position I would use a limit order, not a market order, especially in a fast-moving market. Am I right or am I overlooking something? I am also curious to hear about the results so far from other members. Remember that the 2 x net premium calculation represents the maximum loss the investor is willing to risk — not the stop order.
If one uses the 2 x max loss figure as the MRA, the actual stop is at 3 x the net premium received. Note that the actual stop order trigger is exactly 3 times the net premium collected when using a MRA of 2 x net premium. However, we strongly recommend that you nevertheless use a stop reflecting a maximum loss of 1. This is because credit spread investing requires a very high percentage of winning trades with the average profit being relatively small, and the inevitable occasional losers being small losers.
Otherwise, even a few losers can wipe out all of your profits. Assume the 2 losers produce based on a MRA of 2. Allowing an underlying to get anywhere near the credit spread strike prices is VERY dangerous because if it moves in-the-money, the large loss can kill all the profits and more from the successful trades. Bottom line, it is far better to take some small losses that would have turned out okay if you had not used the MRA stop, than to experience a couple of big losses that greatly drop the value of your account.
When the spreads are wide it can make the difference between meeting the minimum or not, assuming I can place the order for better than market. I recommend using the midpoint between the bid and ask. I am new to credit spreads and to your method. You also advise that you like to use a price on the stock for your stop. My question is what if the 2x credit is reached way ahead of the resistance line on the stock.
Do you stay with the position until resistance is broken? We would never recommend remaining in a trade past the MRA point regardless of the location of a resistance line. In other words, resistance lines are very useful for setting stops that cause you to exit from a trade BEFORE the MRA is reached, hence reducing even further the risk on the trade.
We are experiencing a classic example that an oversold — or in the current case, an overbought — market can continue substantially longer than one might suspect.
Hi Lee, Thanks very much for your previous reply. I understand the merit of placing a contingent stop on the underlying rather than the options to avoid being stopped by wild swings in premiums but is there a way to calculate the expected price of a spread at the stop level placed on the underlying in order to limit potential loss to a specific dollar amount such as 2 times the credit received for example?
Thanks for your reply. Please disregard my previous question. The RVX is around 22 today. Should I close them out now? Will be interesting to see what happens today Friday. Hi Lee, If I close one leg of an iron condor and roll to the next month is the required margin still limited to one leg of the iron condor for as long as the two legs are both not expired, or will I be required to have separate margin for each leg since the expiration months are different?
Thanks for your reply,. To receive the major benefit of a single margin supporting 2 spreads — an Iron Condor — the bull put spread and the bear call spread must 1 involve the same underlying, 2 be for the same expiration month, and 3 must have the same interval between the strike prices of the long and the short positions of each spread.
Such spreads are entitled to a single margin because it is impossible for both spreads to end up in-the-money at expiration and therefore should be entitled to a single margin. If the broker requires a margin on each position of an Iron Condor meeting the qualifications I outlined above, you need a different broker. With a low volatility environment, is anyone finding opportunities without breaking the rules.
Not sure why you are having any difficulty identifying fully conforming credit spread candidates. I have just sent you a sample copy of the report. Do you find that your weekly recommendations are mostly stocks, ETFs, a mix of both?
Which, if any of them, a subscriber chooses to establish is a function of his own profit objectives, risk tolerance and is of course subject to whether or not the candidate still conforms when the investor is contemplating placing an order. I noticed the in the forum April you said you were writing a white paper on the subject.
Can you put the link in here for that please. The article describing how to calculate and use the contingent stop estimate on an underlying, rather than on the options themselves, is posted at http: As with almost any technique for doing anything, there are some pitfalls associated with contingent stops; they are also discussed in the paper.
Wondering if you have any thoughts or defense against a flash crash. Such as the one that occurred on May 6, Depending on your brokerage firm, the price data for the RUT index are quoted, and then usually there is a place to click to see the option chain for that index.
If you are having difficulty finding the option chain at your brokerage, the simplest, quickest approach would be to give their Customer Service a call and ask how to get to the option chair you want. When the MRA has been reached, the book only presents the option of closing out both the short and long positions of the spread.
This confuses me, as it seems like there are several good reasons to hold the long position indefinitely expire worthless, provide profit, indemnify a roll-up. Was this strategy simply left out for brevity, or is there a reason that we should we always close out both positions of a spread together?
Reaching the MRA means that the NET premium has now risen moved against us such that the if we get out of the entire spread now, our loss is the maximum amount MRA we were willing to lose on the trade if it went against us. That increase in the net premium has taken place because although both the short and long legs of the spread have moved up in premium, the short strike price has moved up more than the long strike because it is closer to the market.
Since we know we have to take action with respect to the short leg to keep the net loss from exceeding our MRA, our only real decision is whether or not to exit from the long. In my experience, it is usually a losing proposition to keep the long leg. If we keep it, we have a long option position that is constantly losing value due to time decay.
Even if the underlying continues to move in our favor with respect to the long option, we would constantly be fighting the time decay and we would lose the battle unless the underlying SURPASSED the strike price of that long option before expiration. If it does expire worthless out loss on the entire spread is going to be greater than our MRA.
If we take what we can get for the long now, when we are exiting from the short option, we will have limited our loss to the MRA. Bottom line, I would exit from both legs of the spread if the MRA is reached, rather than holding on to the long leg in the hope that its premium will move up enough — and do so fast enough — so as to provide more premium than I could get right now.
In my attention to the math and processes I forgot to watch my delta and alter it appropriately. My contingent stop would have worked find for the trade at its initial delta of 5. When the delta climbed to 13, and I did not alter my contingent stop, it cost me 4x what I had planned for.
I think I was confused about closing out the long leg, and whether or not that would provide premium. Does anyone use point and figure charts in their technical analysis?
If so, in what manner? Can anyone point me in the right direction to learn more about this tool? Mike shoot me an email when you get a chance. Lee, pretty sure I know the answer but maybe not. If you are in a spread and the market opens up down big and you have a bull put on do you still honor your x2 premium stop? My own trade management practice is to treat my MRA as a point which, if reached, I MUST take action… exit with a relatively small loss, roll into a more distant spread, etc. I would recognize two instances in which I would consider exiting from a position before my MRA is reached: April options expire on the 19, so earnings are not in the same month my options expire.
Will the implied volatility leading up to earnings affect my April options or the May options? Also, NFLX has been squeezed for some time now, would it be smart to possibally enter a straddle heading into earnings? Mike, my suggestion would be to rely on your MRA unless you see a significant penetration of major support or resistance that would threaten your April position.
Generally, it is not productive to enter and exit credit spreads on the basis of talking head forecasts, rumors, etc. The exception, of course, is an earnings report. We should never establish a position if there is an earnings report after you have the spread and prior to option expiration. An earnings report just before expiration will affect your options in that they will typically lose premium more slowly than usual.
Of course, so long as they ultimately expire out-of-the-money, you will get the full premium nonetheless. Met all rules at the time.
Just passing it along in case someone might be interested. Hi Lee, Our ground rules advise not to participate in a trade if an earnings report is due within our chosen timeframe. Frequently an earnings report is known or reported by other than the company of the stock.
Can you comment on the reliability of predictions of the earnings reports. If there is a predominance of opinions regarding the meeting or not meeting predictions is it sensible to sell the option based on those predictions. Bottom line, if an investor trades on his outlook for an earnings report, he is speculating — which he has a right to do if he so desires. But he is not making a conservative income investment by any stretch of the imagination. I just wanted to return to the question of Iron Condors once more and provide an example to see how YOU would handle this situation.
However, for the last 2 weeks, XYZ has been going up consecutively, so I decide to wait for a day pull back before initiating the Bull Put spread of the Iron Condor. A week later, the underlying continues going up and I find that now there is no more conforming Bull Put spread due to the 7 days of theta decay.
Because I wanted to leg in, I essentially missed the opportunity of establishing an Iron Condor and only have the original Bear Call spread. Instead, the usual situation is that when most investors are piling into one direction, giving us one conforming spread, the other one needed for the Condor does not offer enough premium.
Either way, all-at-once Condors or those we leg into, the final Iron Condor gives us the same opportunity for doubled ROI with no additional risk. Even a counter-trend move does not assure a conforming trade in the needed second spread.
If the retracement in underlying price occurs, but not quickly enough, the effect of time decay may result in insufficient non-conforming premium even though the underlying price is moving toward the strike prices at the required distance.
Each investor resolves the question based on his Iron Condor priorities. Is he willing to risk waiting for a more favorable Iron Condor vs. Should we seize the all-at-once Iron Condor opportunity when it is there, or delay a little in the hope but not the certainty that we can achieve an even better Iron Condor by legging in later? Lee, Thank you so much for the thoroughness of your response. However, if you take a look at a couple index option chains like RUT and SPX, the trend and momentum is obviously to the bullish side, and one would think that you should be able to sell a conforming spread on the call side, but it is not the case.
In my own situation, I was able to place a put spread on the RUT, but no conforming call spreads even in April are available. I am new to this strategy but am not new to trading options. I am interested in how others manage stops especially when entering trades in low volatility environments.
I had an April bull put spread I am using a 2 times credit for stop. Today the premium hit 0. However, I still felt very comfortable with the trade and where the stock was trading.
I feel like many times closing out at the stop is premature especially when there is a good support zone between the price and the short strike.
Not sure how to combine the 2 times credit stop with good technical analysis to avoid locking in a loss too early. Would appreciate any thoughts. Any examples or am I miscalculating? For March, you will not find any conforming Index spreads due to the current low volatility. Overall market volatility is well below average, probably because investors are standing aside awaiting outcome of sequester.
Welcome to the SaferTrader community. This is a VERY typical conforming spread. Thanks for the reply, I was referring to the previous posting of. I would just like to mention that when I first read the book, I had the exact question you had re: I am wondering why you chose not to include it in the list of conforming spreads? Would you address this please? New to the forum here and wondering about something. SPX is my favorite index to trade for monthly income.
Instead, I have been using the Delta and making sure my strikes are not outside of. What am I missing in my calculations? Also, the last trading day of SPY is the same as expiration day third Friday of month whereas the SPX ceases trading on the Thursday before the 3rd Friday and you must exit before the end of the Thursday trading or risk a major overnight development and being unable to exit on expiration day. Thanks for such a prompt response, Lee! I will take a look at SPY right now and hopefully be ready for a Monday morning trade.
I finished reading the book cover to cover this week and am reading through the forum to get more details on the system. Finberg, you mention that the width of the strikes should at most have 2 intervening strikes between them…. If you can address this, I would appreciate it. Information about, and subscription link for, the optional Conforming Credit Spreads Service is at:. The book says that 25 cents is the minimum acceptable. I assumed that the minimum mattered because it limits how much margin you risk for the premium.
So my question is: The individual investor can, of course, determine whether a trade offering the minimum premium meets his objectives relative to margin, etc. Option Chain strike price intervals and distance between spread strike price legs.
Hi Lee, Thanks for your excellent advice you provide to us rookies. In your note to Dave you state that widening the spread will generate a larger premium, more margin, and will move against you more quickly in response to an adverse move in the underlying. What am I missing? The theta of the more distant long leg choice will be lower, which I thought would mean it would move against you slower?
Let me see if I can answer this one for Lee…. That means that if the underlying is moving against you, the short leg will be moving more against your per dollar move of the underlying than the long leg moving for you. I think an illustration will give this answer more meaning: The short strike has a delta of.
Had your long leg been closer to the short leg, say the long put, it would have had a delta of. I hope this helps and if Lee would like to step in to provide additional details, please do so. I was looking at the newest conforming spreads sheet and have a question. If im reading it right, iffy at best, it says to put on the lulu put spread. Paul, when using the Conforming Credit Spreads Service, or manually identifying conforming spreads, we are always dealing with using strike prices that give us the best opportunity considering the trade off between distance-from-the-underlying and premium.
The first consideration is that the short leg of a spread needs to meet the distane-from-underlying entry criterion. As noted whenever I review this rule, keep in mind that as you increase the distance of the long leg from the short leg, two things occur in addition to increasing the premium: Hope your holidays were great!
Is this kind of variance to be expected? Or was AAPL volatility smashed overnight? If the list came out Friday a. I appreciate the response and appreciate your patience with some of these initial questions. I like Friday close report so I have the weekend to sort through everything. AAPL stock experienced significant trading activity to the downside during the Friday after hours 4: These source data inconsistencies are common and unavoidable in their entirety.
In order to minimize them, we will run hour analyses much later so long as we can get the Conforming Spreads lists to you before noon on Saturday. Checking various websites does indeed produce different dates! The point to be made here is that it is necessary to check that the conforming trades as reported in our Conforming Credit Spread Service still conform when you are considering placing an order.
As noted in the report itself, it may not conform due to market movement subsequent to the report, or due to vagaries in the source data at the time the report is prepared. Bottonm line, while not every identified conforming spread will be doable at any given moment, there should be enough opportunities surfaced in each report to provide SaferTraders with viable candidates much more quiickly and completelt than likely with manual start-from-scratch evaluation.
I just subscribed,havent got the stuff yet but have a few questions. I placed 4 vertical credit spreads. Due to a rally, I closed the position at a loss. I am not totally sure how to calculate the loss. In my case I ended up with The Service will list conforming trade candidates with twice monthly Basic Service or weekly Premier Service reports.
Can you explain if there is any benefit. During an adverse move, the long leg will be working in our favor to reduce the net negative effect of the adverse move in the underlying.
The further away from the market the long leg is, the less beneficial effect it will have during the adverse move. In fact, if you look at an option chain you will see that a strike price can be so far from the underlying that investors judge that strike reaching in the money status to be so remote that they are unwilling to pay anything at all for that option strike price. This fact serves to illustrate the fact that the protective value of the long leg of a credit spread is very much dependent on how close it is to the short leg.
Just as you pointed out, as you widen the distance between the legs of a credit spread — i. Also, when the legs are wider apart, a smaller adverse move in the underlying can push the spread premium up to your MRA maximum risk amount. In other words, you would be forced out of a position by a smaller negative move. Recall that our spread can have up to two intervening strike price legs. I placed the trades 25 days from expiration and all conformed to the rules.
From my perspective there are two ways of looking at this, on one hand 1. I did notice that credit spreads that were on the other side of some support or resistance lines did better.
By only using positions that had a technical advantage might have increased your overall profit results. Lee, I know you said that 8 of 10 trades go well, but for beginners that kind of follow the rules blindly is this month kind of typical? Does more experienced safer traders use technical analysis and increase there return percentage?
Thanks for the clarification Lee. The Deltas and Distances are in place, for example. However, the option delta calculation incorporates historic volatility into the calculation, so I would expect the resulting delta values to be as useful as they are for regular 1X underlyings.
But, to be on the safe side, I will check into this further just to be sure! Just as we have a mimimum requirement for price of the underlying, I also want to see a minimum average daily trading volume for the underlying. I think to hedge your IC , even if it means taking in less credit, by buying an extra long put or call, you have a wider area that the underlying has to travel in regards to threatening your short options which could give you higher probabilities of success.
Been trading for income for about 8 months now and like the Monthly Income Machine model. However I have a hard time finding qualifying trades. Especially in a relatively low volatility environment. Also, I may have to accept less return on margin to satisfy my premium targets by widening the spread. Position size and the percentage of portfolio committed are a function of individual risk appetite.
My position size is small, typically contracts not exceeding max risk of 2. I need to get more disciplined on closing trades when they go against me and approach the short strikes….. Trading can challenge all of your weaknesses so the only choice is to eliminate them or overcome them. The fight goes on. Bill, I appreciate your feed back on position size.
I struggle with knowing how much to place on any particular position. Depending on the size of your account you may have to use a larger percentage of your account to make it worthwhile. The 25 trading days out is a good time frame out because the time value starts to leak out rapidly even if the underlying moves in your direction. But I would be glad to see your back testing results. I made a mistake this month on placing a trade on CMG right after a earnings report and gap down and for only.
It filled the gap quickly and put me in the hurt. I rolled up and got hurt gain. I placed this trade knowing that there is a likelihood of it filling the gap. I also paid for a lesson in why you need to get the minimum. With that small of a premium the chance of it hitting your MRA is increased. Bill is right about trading exposing your weaknesses.
Also new to options trading and finding conforming trades difficult. Was surprised is this IV or what?? Lee, Base hits and homeruns. I tend to relate subjects to sports when explaining something. I would compare credit spreads to base hits in baseball. While getting on base is important and essential to winning the game, home runs help too. Do you have any advice on going for the occasional home run or should I forget about the big-gainers and focus solely on consistent income from writing spreads?
I think I know what your answer will be, but I wanted to get your thoughts on the subject. If the plan is a risk-adverse technique to generate a stream of monthly income, trading around earnings reports is — as you certainly expected me to say — absolutely out. For real home runs, your best bet is probably outright purchase of out-of-the-money calls or puts depending on your directional bias.
While we must keep those in the path of Sandy in our thoughts and prayers, it seems to be that the market being closed for a couple of days gives us sellers of credit spreads a time decay boost withing any risk.
Am I correct in my assessment? Yes, more important things than trading going on right now. But, your statement is correct. Expiration dates have not moved so theta is still working in your favor for OTM credit positions you have in place.
However, potential trade set-ups are also being eroded, denying opportunities. Im just starting out with Safertrader and finding that a disproportional amount of commissions are being paid in relation to profits made. There is not as many brokerages in Canada that offer credit spread abilities and allow them in retirement accts.
Yee haw, I am liking what I see. Would be nice if the forum were more active, though I guess everybody has something better to do.
Wondering what everyone thinks of November expirations as being disqualified because of the election. Seems like that carries a lot more weight than a companies earnings…what say you experienced ones who have been through an election year? I would have guessed that something like that might be a market-moving event. Just curious what anyone thought. I just ran a scan on the entire list and every spread is headed in the right direction.
Well, I ran the results from the entire list after the fact as I was not set up and ready to trade yet. The importance of setting and sticking to exit rules for each trade cannot be stressed enough.
Without strict adherence to maximum loss rules, this run could have easily wiped out YTD profits or worse. Discipline when enforcing exit rules will help mitigate the effect of the statistical anomalies that will occur.
I found a trade within 10 minutes of opening the spreadsheet. Do you have a rough estimate on when the screener will be up and running. I have observed that on the time I had to do adjustments, unless I roll it to the next month, I will certainly take a loss. My plan is to avoid a loss, and just take a lesser return or even breakeven, so rolling seems to work except if there is a big drop.
My observation also is that if I just do trade adjustments thru rolling to the next month on the last week, this seems to prevent me from taking a loss. The risk will be if the stock crosses beyond the short leg which and for some reason I can not rollout, then I will really take a big hit. I am wondering why. Is it because RUT have higher open interests? Do you also have same experiences?
You are certainly right about the SPX being relatively difficult to get filled. You may want to check out http: It covers a number of the beneifts and drawbacks of each. One of your recent emails mentioned a 2nd Edition of the MIM book. I think I have the 1st edition. Is there any reason for owners of the first book to read the 2nd Ed?
The book has been expanded to include some explanations of items not covered in the 1st Ed such as why we recommend NOT using weekly options for credit spreads, as well as attempts to clarify sections where readers have indicated they still had questions. We also updated the examples to refer to more recent trades, market-wide headline developments, etc.
Bottom line, it is not necessary to read the 2nd Edition if you have already absorbed the material in the first edition. But if enough 1st Ed. I got that part. Now what do i do if market is between breakeven and short? Also if i am not using stop, how do i exit if market is just above my long, or just below on thursday? Does anyone have experience with Fibonacci Retracements?
I think the use of these with credit spreads could be very powerful. Any tips or recommendations on good books or websites would be very appreciated. I am worried about flash crash, big drop in price with big jump in volatility especially with the current market volatility.
Is there a good way to protect our iron condors against these? I would buy the same expiration as IC and it will not cost you so much for the near term. Do experiment and do some volatility simulation tests to validate the effectiveness of this method. For that reason, I personally tend to favor bear call spreads if I am choosing from among similar trade candidates. The risk is greatest — by far — with an individual stock where a disasterous stock-specific event can hit the newswires.
However, a one-day drop of that magnitude is very, very unlikely for a major index. If one is really overwhelmingly concerned about such an occurance, he should focus his trades on indices, and do so on the short side. Also keep in mind that SaferTraders are exhorted to always have an MRA maximum risk amount in force on every trade, backed up by an actual stop order in the market.
While this will not guarantee that you will be filled at your stated stop price if the market takes a sudden swoon, it will assure that you are at least taken out of the market. Also, as mentioned by another FORUM user, one can use an unbalanced bull put spread when he wants to use a bull spread — one that has extra long options compared to the number of short options in the spread.
I have been checking for stocks or indexes that meet the requirements this week with no luck. Does the earnings season mess up the premiums? This is my first month and would appreciate any clues on a stock or index. Hi Pat, one of the entry requirements that Lee has in his book is that you do not want to trade stock options during announcement or earnings months due to the chances of a large move. So, patience is a virture! You might look a little further in time.
I have been paper trading this system for some time and have been very successful with fake money, my problems began when I started trading with real money imagine that. My first 3 live trades hit my MAR of 2x premium received, forcing me to exit the trade.
What makes this so frustrating is that seemingly as soon as my stop loss is triggered the stock turns right back around only to expire worthless. I am asking for any advice on technical analysis. If anyone can recommend any tips, websites or books to improve my timing and confidence it would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you in advance. It sounds like to me that maybe your condor is not wide enough. Are you making sure that you are trading in months without announcements, dividends, conference call, etc? Like I said it is hard to advise when you tell us so little about what you did. Wish I could help more. Hey Mike, it is impossible to help you with your trade with what you have told me. I need to know more about what you traded and your strike prices etc to be able to even begin to know how to help.
Based on what you said the answer would be so general and vague that it would not help you. Also, can anyone give some good advice on what websites will tell you exactly when the next earnings reports will come out. I apologize for my lack of knowledge on the subject, but there are a lot of websites out there that will tell you when the last earnings report was out, but they will not say exactly when the Q2 earnings come out.
I good site for general information is http: At the upper left hand side of the screen type in the ticker symbol of your stock. Another method is to find out when the last earnings was, it will be 3 months later.
Every company has its own unique earnings date every 3 months. Lee, from a SafeTrader perspective, how many trade should I have.. Whats is your thought process on diversification? Hi Lee, When I hit the confirm and send key to place a trade with my brokerage firm, it tells me the cost of the trade including commissions.
Can you shed some light? If you are short a stock and the ex-dividend date passes, you are the one responsible for paying whatever dividend had been declared. If you are not following the rules, however, it is possible to end up short the underlying stock obviously, this does not apply to cash-settled options like the RUT and SPX.
Long a put that expires. If you are long an American-style stock or ETF put exercisable at any time , and it expires in-the-money, it is automatically exercised. That means you sell the stock at the strike price of your put.
You are now short the stock. If you hold the short stock position after the ex-dividend date, you are responsible for eventual cash payment of any dividend that had been declared. Long a put that is exercised early. If you are long a put that is in-the-money, and you decide for some reason that you want to exercise it and intentionally be short the stock, rather than just selling the put and taking your profit, you will be liable for paying declared dividend as noted above.
If you are short a call that is in-the-money, or close to in-the-money plus a big dividend has been declared, the person who is long that call might decide to exercise it before expiration early exercise if the value of underlying plus the dividend he would be entitled to exceeds the strike price.
If he does do an early exercise, you are then in effect short the stock and will be liable for the dividend as of the ex-dividend date. Lee, Thanks for your quick response to my question about SMA, you are awesome! My question is about other technical indicators. At what point do we risk paralysis by analysis? My question is which indicators should we pay attention to and which indicators should we ignore?
Mike, As you note, there are more technical indicators than you can shake a proverbial stick at. Generally, the shorter the time period of the moving average filter or chart pivot points , the more signals being delivered will turn out to be bogus. When stocks topped out in October , the stock market crash and real trouble began about 10 or 11 months later in September In the dotcom bubble crash, stocks peaked in March and then 5 or 6 months later fell apart in August-September.
If stocks peaked in late September , that February-August window is when an all-out stock market collapse and crash may begin.
May can be a tumultuous Keystone is using dollar college words to make himself sound smart month. So perhaps the February to July period will be sick for the stock market.
Keystone does not expect the highs to be taken out again. Stocks will recover and perhaps come up to back kiss the important moving averages at SPX , but that may be the high-water mark for in Q1. Valuation-wise, Keystone has preached the last couple years about how the global central bankers have artificially-inflated stock market prices.
The easy money sends stock prices higher. The world is awash in liquidity and all that money has to go somewhere; it pumps-up all asset class prices. In addition, companies take advantage of low interest rates and money in their company coffers to buyback stock repurchase programs instead of hiring workers or buying equipment.
This behavior drives stock prices higher rewarding the wealthy elite class that own large stock portfolios but does nothing for common Americans. Trump and Obama are two birds of a feather both implementing legislation that benefits the wealthy class since that funds their election campaigns. It does not matter that the Fed implemented a few chintzy quarter-point hikes when the ECB and BOJ continue printing money like madmen.
It is ongoing global central banker collusion. Or, put another way, the earnings per share numbers are overstated due to the buybacks. Many analysts are touting a ish number for earnings in which would correspond to a Many analysts think stocks cannot go any lower saying valuations are at a base now.
Using the earnings number, a multiple of 17 places the SPX at x17 and this is the general expectation of the Wall Street crowd for The already low multiples will venture lower. Keystone targets x16; x15; x14 for the end of the year a As explained above, however, the path will likely be very wild and volatile.
January is likely going to be a lot of chop through SPX Fed dovishness and PBOC stimulus will create a happy mood to begin The SPX monthly chart will then reexert its ugliness and stocks will tumble lower taking out the prior lows and plummeting to say, from March through August.
There may be Brexit negativity occurring during this March-May time period. The Mueller stuff may create negativity and the US-China trade talks may be at a standstill. The US and China will agree to a trade deal to save the global stock markets. Stocks should then rally in the summer into the early Fall with everyone believing the worst is over for the stock market.
The pundits appearing on television will be touting the third year of a presidential cycle which creates more excitement for equities. The SPX will likely rally back to but then roll over and sell off again in September and October. The year will be volatile with an elevated VIX so the stock market will mainly chop wildly sideways all year long with the huge moves described and end up nowhere. Keystone predicts a recession will begin in Q2 and Q3 In Q3 and Q4, companies will steadily ramp up layoffs.
By the end of the year, the soft economy will be obvious. People will be losing their jobs as the holidays approach. The Federal Reserve will not hike rates in Economic weakness will develop. Housing and auto sectors will remain challenged. When stocks take the big tumble in March-July and the economic outlook becomes soggy, the Fed may begin hinting about a rate cut to stimulate the economy.
The Fed will jawbone first in the summer and Fall, and then cut the key rate by 25 bips at either the September meeting or anytime in Q4. The theme from was lack of demand and lack of inflation in the economy both bold calls by Keystone considering that all of Wall Street disagreed.
The lack of demand tanks oil and the stock market in He expects the lack of demand story to continue in leading into recession. America remains mired in deflation. When the stock market collapses due to the continued weakness on the SPX monthly chart, we will find out if the country falls into a deflationary spiral, or not.
If so, that will create a couple-year Armageddon scenario. Currently, the thinking is that stocks will recover in the back half of and then collapse in If, however, the expected late winter, spring, perhaps early summer sell off in the stock market gathers legs lower and crashes, well, that will be the Armageddon ending this year instead of next with the SPX on its way to sub 2K.
Now, the US is at the point where the filthy rich, that control the rigged system, are decreasing their purchases.